Peak Oil coming in 2014?

While some have claimed that we already passed "Peak Oil" in 2008, and others think that it's still some years away, a group of Kuwaiti petroleum engineers have developed a new method to measure the oil production curve, and predict that 2014 is the best guess.

"Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting 'peak oil' — the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point, and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models, called the Hubbert model, accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970.

...[Their] new study describe development of a new version of the Hubbert model that accounts for these individual production trends to provide a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model, the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries, which supply most of the world's conventional crude oil. They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014, years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world's oil reserves are being depleted at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate, they suggest."

From here.

Comments

[John B. Chilton]

The real question is, so what?

[Nicholas Knisely]

Well, my economist man, it would mean higher oil prices. Which means increased transportation costs. Which means the economic model that makes it cheaper to grow vegetables in Chile and then fly them to Philadelphia (rather than growing them in Lancaster) will probably no longer work.

Which might mean more farms in Central PA and less work in Chile.

And asphalt prices will go up. Which means road repair and new roads become much more expensive. Which raises the cost of ground-based transportation.

Etc.

None of this will happen overnight - but over a decade or two - I think we'll see things like the end of the giant shopping mall…and the resurgence of downtown shopping districts.

Which I think will mean the resurgence of the Episcopal Churches, many of which are historically in urban and town centers and which have been hurt by the flight to the suburbs.